NBA Finals Preview

We're a couple of days away from the NBA Finals matchup that everyone wanted to see.   Cleveland vs. Golden State was also the matchup everyone expected.  The experience of LeBron James against the young, up and coming stars.  The best player on the planet against the insanely deep Warriors.  Whatever way you put it it's going to be an exciting matchup.  I've been going back and forth on my pick in this series and I don't think Golden State is as heavy of a favorite as Vegas does.  I have a couple of keys to this series for both teams.  I'm going to pick a winner and a NBA Finals MVP.

Keys For the Cavs

1.  Tristan Thompson-  The Cavs won't be able to go shot for shot with Tristan Thompson and Steph Curry.  They don't have anybody on their roster that can shoot like those two.  If Tristan Thompson dominates the boards the way he did against the Hawks, that will help level the playing field.  He is relentless on the offensive glass and Cleveland will need second chance points in this series.

2.  The Supporting Cast-  LeBron will be LeBron. Kyrie will be Kyrie (if healthy).  The rest of the Cavs you might not know exactly what you'll get.  The supporting cast of J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Timofey Mozgov, and Matthew Dellavedova have to consistently contribute all series long.  Though LeBron can single handedly steal a few games himself in this series, the Cavs aren't nearly as deep as the Warriors so he will need their contributions.

3.  Experience-  LeBron has the experience and knows what it takes to lead a team to a championship.  He also has role players like James Jones, Shawn Marion, and Mike Miller who have that same experience.  LeBron just has to tell his guys to follow his lead.  Experience can play a huge role when it's a one possession game late in the fourth quarter.

Keys For the Warriors

1.  LeBron Stoppers-  I shouldn't say "stoppers" because nobody on their roster can stop LeBron.  Golden State does have the luxury of putting a handful of guys on LeBron.  They won't have to worry about foul trouble considering Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green can all see time defending him.  Although it was in the prime of his career Andre Iguodala was considered the closest thing to a "LeBron Stopper" back in his days with the 76ers.


2.  Klay Thompson-  He is the biggest key for me in this series for the Warriors.  At times in the series against Houston he wasn't a factor.  He shot under 50% for a majority of that series and he sat almost the entire second half of Game 5 due to foul trouble.  If he gets back to the usual Klay, hitting threes and defending at a high level, the Warriors might be too much for Cleveland. 

3. Turnovers-  Turnovers are key for both teams but more for the Warriors.  One part of Steph's game that he needs to clean up is his turnovers.  The one way Cleveland will beat Golden State is with great defense and by creating turnovers.  LeBron and Kyrie can turn a turnover into an alley-oop in a matter of seconds.  If Golden State plays a clean game it will be hard for Cleveland to keep up.

Predictions

Warriors in 7-  If you're just looking at talent on the rosters, some might think this series can end up being shorter.  I think LeBron will keep it from being a short series because he is too experienced, and too dominant.  Golden States depth will however be too much for Cleveland and Steph Curry will win his first NBA Final.

Finals MVP-  Klay Thomson.  I said earlier if the Warriors were going to win Klay needs to have a great series.  I think he will play a huge role in bringing a championship to Golden State.  I see a 40 point game late in the series to put the Cavs away.

NBA Playoff Predictions

We're about halfway through the first round of this year's playoffs and I can honestly say it hasn't been too exciting.  Golden State is already in round two, and there are a few other series that look like they will only last the minimum of 4 games.  The Eastern Conference series has been a huge yawn and it looks like the Hawks, Cavs, Wizards, and Bulls can all advance in 5 games or less.  The one series that has potential to go 7 is the Spurs - Clippers series.  I'm going to predict the NBA Finals matchup, the winner, and the Finals MVP

Western Conference

The west is completely up for grabs.  Most experts are saying that Golden State may not be able to be beaten, but the Spurs, Rockets, and Grizzlies can also make a strong push.  I am picking the Spurs to make it out of the West.  The combination of Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan playing like he didn't just turn 39 yesterday, and the DPOY Kawhi Leonard will be too much for the West yet again.  They will most likely have to go through the Clippers, Rockets, and then the Warriors which is a brutal road to the NBA Finals.  Hopefully we get the Western Conference Finals matchup of Spurs vs. Warriors which everyone would love to see.


Eastern Conference

The picture is more clear in the East.  The only teams that I can see making a push are the Cavs, Hawks, and Bulls in that order.  The Hawks look like they will have the easier second round matchup if they get past Brooklyn, while Cleveland will have to battle Chicago.  I'm staying away from the trendy pick again and am going with the Atlanta Hawks to come out of the East.  Cleveland and Chicago will beat each other up a bit giving Atlanta the small advantage they will need to make a surprising trip to the NBA Finals.  People just don't believe in these Hawks.  Maybe  it is because they don't have a superstar, but they play together, and can go toe-to-toe with anybody.


NBA Finals

I got the San Antonio Spurs winning back-to-back titles.  Spurs over Hawks in 5.  If not for a Ray Allen three-pointer, this could have been the Spurs third straight title. But either way the dynasty continues.  The Spurs will prove to be too much and their experience will be a huge advantage that Atlanta will not be able to overcome.

NBA Finals MVP-

Kawhi Leonard.  The Defensive Player of the Year will also take home the NBA Finals MVP.  The 23 year old continues to develop into one of the brightest young superstars in today's game.

NBA MVP Race Isn't a Photo Finish

This year's MVP race has more candidates then usual.  There are about 5 or 6 players that are in the conversation.  At the same time, I would say there are only 2 or 3 players that have a serious chance.  After taking a look at all the factors that go into an MVP season, I don't think it's even close.  James Harden is head, shoulders, and beard above everyone else.  The ingredients that go into an MVP season are stats, team record, schedule difficulty, and durability.  Let's take a look at those ingredients and you be the judge.

Stats- When looking strictly at stats, all of the candidates have insane numbers.  If you want to split hairs, you have to look at Anthony Davis, Westbrook, and Harden having the best stat line this season.  Davis has the highest PER which is a rating of a players per-minute productivity.  You can easily make a case that the just-turned 22 year old Davis, has been the most dominant player, when healthy.  Westbrook's triple double streak wasn't quite the streak Jordan put together years ago, but it was pretty damn impressive.  His averages of 27 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds per game is the most impressive stat line of all the candidates.  Harden is right behind Westbrook, putting together averages of 27 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds a game which is a better line than both Steph Curry and LeBron James.

Team Record- This is where Steph Curry joins the debate.  Steph Curry has lead the Warriors to a 59-13 record in the West, basically guaranteeing a #1 seed.  How much would they drop if they didn't have Curry?  I'm not trying to say they don't need him, but they have Kentucky Wildcat-like depth.  They are a ten deep team with a backup in Shaun Livingston who could start on most teams.  The most impressive team record of all the candidates has to be James Harden.  He's played without his starting center (D Howard), and starting power forward (Terrence Jones), most of the year.  He has put the team on his back and brought them to an incredible 49-23, a half game behind Memphis for 2nd in the West.

Schedule Difficulty- This category piggybacks off of Team Record. It is something to consider when you look at a team's record.  Since LeBron plays in the East he gets the least credibility when you look at a team's record.  If you take a closer look at who the Rockets play, James Harden again runs away with this category.  Ever look at Houston's division? Grizzlies, Spurs, Mavericks, and Pelicans, are you kidding me?  Golden State plays in a division with the Lakers, Kings, and Suns. All three of those teams would be in last if they played in the Southwest.  Considering the team around Harden you should be asking yourself, "How the hell are they 49-23!?"  You can't even reward LeBron for leading the Cavs to a 47-27 record, considering they play in a division with the Bucks, Pacers, and Pistons, all teams that would also be in last if they were in Houston's division.

Durability- This is where the MVP race gets interesting.  You're not valuable to your team if you're injured and on the bench.  You prove your value, yes, but you are not valuable watching.  Russell Westbrook has missed 15 games this year due to injury.  That could cost them a first round matchup with the Warriors, or cost them a playoff spot.  How are you an MVP if your team may not even make the playoffs? You're not.  LeBron James took time off to rest his knee and although he has looked great since, those 11 games could cost them home court advantage if they were to meet the Hawks in the ECF.  James Harden, on the other hand, has played every single game but one.  He's carrying a load that would be much too heavy for most.  Just ask Russell Westbrook.  Harden and Curry both separate themselves from the pack when considering durability.

In Review-
(underneath are the rankings of each category)

Stats-    1. Westbrook   2. Harden   3. Davis   4. LeBron   5. Curry
Team Record-    1. Harden   2. Curry   3. LeBron   4. Westbrook   5. Davis
Schedule Difficulty-    1. Davis   2. Harden   3. Curry   4. Westbrook   5. LeBron
Durability-    1. Harden   2. Curry   3. LeBron   4. Westbrook   5. Davis

Now add the numbers above for each candidate and you have a scoring system for the MVP candidates.  Results are below ( low number being the best).

1. James Harden- 6
2. Steph Curry- 12
3. Russell Westbrook- 13
4. Anthony Davis- 14
5. LeBron James- 15

All things considered James Harden is the lead dog and I don't see it changing.  There are about ten games left in the NBA regular season, but I got Harden as the clear-cut favorite.  Who is your MVP?

NFL Rookie Wide Receiver Class, Best Ever?

Last Sunday I was on the couch watching the controversial Dallas vs. Green Bay Divisional Playoff Game.  While the Dez Bryant catch was the hot topic after the game, I did notice something during the game.  Green Bay rookie wide receiver Davante Adams was having an impressive game.  He finished with seven catch for 117 yards and a touchdown.  This made me realize that this 2014 class of rookie wide receiver's are hands down the best rookie class we have ever seen.

I am going to discuss when they were drafted, grade them on their season, and give a prediction of the future seasons to come.  Do I dare predict Hall of Fame for any of these rookies?

Sammy Watkins- 1stRd- 4th Overall                    B-

I'm being tough on Watkins simply because he was the first WR off the board, taken fourth overall.  He didn't produce like a top WR.  He finished just short of 1,000 yards and finished 6th among rookies with 65 catches despite starting all 16 games.  We know he didn't have a quarterback who can throw deep but they were a competitive team hoping for a playoff spot.  His 15 yards per catch were second for all rookies behind Mike Evans.

Mike Evans- 1stRd- 7th Overall                            A-

Mike Evans was one of the only bright spots for the Bucs this year.  Among rookies, Evans was tied for first in touchdowns with 12, first in yards per catch, and second in yards with 1,051.  This guy does it all, including block (if you haven't seen his vine famous block on Terence Newman you should check it out ). Evans has huge upside even more so if he can relocate.

Odell Beckham Jr.- 1stRd- 12th Overall               A
(Rookie of the Year)
Bursting onto the National spotlight with his three finger catch vs. Dallas, OBJ was the most dominant WR in the NFL the last nine weeks of the season. He's first among rookie in yards with 1,305, 91 catches, and 12 touchdowns.  He led all three categories while only starting in 11 games due to an injury in camp.  Shattering records already, this kid can end up in Canton.

Brandon Cooks- 1stRd- 20th Overall                    C-

Cooks has the most to prove still in my opinion.  He only started in seven games due to injury and lacked consistency, as much as the entire Saints offense did.  His rookie season ended with 550 yards, 53 catches and three touchdowns.  Poised for more of a breakout sophomore season, once he and Drew Brees are on the same page watch out.  This kid can be a huge weapon.

Kelvin Benjamin- 1stRd- 28th Overall                   B+

Benjamin finished with over 1,000 yards and third among rookies with 73 catches.  He also led the NFL in drops with ten.  He needs to improve his hands and route running as only 50% of his targets were completions.  Compare that to OBJ who had a 70% rate.  He's a huge redzone target and that was on display with his two touchdowns in the playoffs.  He was a steal at 28 for the Panthers.

Marqise Lee- 2ndRd- 39th Overall                          C-

I didn't give him a very poor grade simply because of the situation he was in.  The Jags took a risk drafting him at 39 and the fact that I struggled to find a picture on google of him in a Jags uniform says something.  37 grabs, 422 yards and a touchdown, this collegiate stud has some work to do, and needs to stay healthy.

Notable Others

1. Jarvis Landry    B+ ..Had an insane 84 catches, and also helped in the return game.
2. Jordan Matthews    B .. Showed great potential in Chip Kelly's offense with 872 yards.
3. Davante Adams    B- .. Considering he was the fourth option, Adams still had a nice season.

The Number 13- I believe the top three receivers in this class all wear the number 13 (OBJ, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans). 

This rookie class had five players finish with over 800 yards.  To put that into perspective in 2009 zero rookies finished with over 800 yards and that was a class that included Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Michael Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Mike Wallace, and Julian Edelman.  I'm excited to see these guys develop into All-Pro players and possibly even Hall of Famers.
                   

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Calvin Johnson (Pro Bowl)

     This past Sunday I was a little disappointed when realizing I wouldn't be able to watch OBJ play football for another eight months.  But the part that disappointed me the most was that I should be watching him in the meaningless yet entertaining Pro Bowl. 
 
     Odell Beckham JR. burst onto the scene with the Giants on his way to arguably the best rookie season for a wide receiver ever.  All of that while only starting in 11 games due to a hamstring injury.  Had he played in every game this year he could have easily lead the league in every single category that meant something.  To put into perspective how dominant he was to finish the season, his worst performance in the last four weeks was against the Titans when he caught 11 balls for 130 yards and a touchdown.  Yes I said worst.

      Todays compare topic will be OBJ vs. Calvin Johnson.  Before anyone gets confused I am not saying the rookie phenom is better than Megatron.  The argument I will make today is that he simply had a better season.  After looking at the stats its very obvious.

Odell finished the season with 91 catches for 1,305 yards, and 12 TD's in 11 starts.

Calvin Johnson finished the season with 71 catches for 1,077 yards, and 8 TD's in 13 starts.

The stats aren't even comparable considering the time OBJ missed to start the season.  And to make a comparison that all Giants fans will understand, Calvin Johnson and Rueben Randle both had 71 catches this season.

       OBJ was named the first alternate for the Pro Bowl so there is still a good chance that we will be able to watch him go to work one more time.  In my opinion he was by far the most exciting player to watch in the second half of the NFL season.  Those are the kind of players the Pro Bowl needs to have. 

Harper vs Trout

Bryce Harper and Mike Trout both have burst onto the MLB scene with great success.  Even though they are both too young to legally drink a beer one thing is for sure, they can play with the big boys.  Such similar stories, being a top prospect, first round pick, play the outfield position, and both all stars in their rookie season.  Most people who follow baseball know about Bryce Harper.  This guy was on peoples radars when he was in high school, and his few minor league games were even must watch games.  He was the number one pick in the 2010 draft, taken by the Washington Nationals.  Mike Trout wasn't picked first, instead he was the 25th pick to the Anaheim Angels in 2009.  The expecations weren't as high, but both players were considered great prospects coming out of high school.

Bryce Harper is a big reason for one the biggest surprises in the MLB.  That is the Washington Nationals being in first place in he NL East.  Half way through Bryce Harper's first full season, his stats are .273AVG/ 8 HR's/ 25 RBI's/ 11 SB's. While hitting second in the lineup for the most part, Harper has been a little up and down but solid overall.  Considering these are stats at only the half way point of his first season, it's impressive.  If he keeps the pace up he can put up stats looking something like .280/ 20 HR's/ 55 RBI's/ 25 SB's.

Mike Trout on the other hand has not been up and down.  Just up. The Angels looked dead, and found themselves underachieving to say the least.  Trout was called up and now they are back in the playoff hunt.  Trout's stats thus far are, .349 AVG/ 12 HR/ 41 RBI/ 30 SB.  Those numbers are simply amazing.  You also have to think about two things when looking at Trout's numbers so far.  One, he hasn't even played the whole season because he was waiting to get called up from the minors.  Two, Trout is a leadoff hitter. Having 41 RBI's is insane for a leadoff hitter in less than a half of a season.  To put it in perspective Derek Jeter has twenty more hits than Trout because he has played the entire season, yet has  15 less RBI.  If Trout keeps a similar pace he will end up with stats around .350 AVG/ 30 HR/ 90 RBI/ 60 SB. Trout is already one of the most fun players to watch in the game.

Me personally I would take Trout over Harper now and also in the future.  Some reasons are outside of the actual game.  People who know Trout say this guy has an even better head on his shoulders than he has talent on the field.  He is a great kid who doesn't seem to do much wrong.  His idol growing up in New Jersey was Derek Jeter, coincidence? I think not. The guy is humble and just wants to win.

Harper surprisingly has not made sports news for the right reasons since entering the league.  His first mistake was in the minors.  After hitting a home run in a minor league baseball game last year, he starred it down and styled like it was a game winning home run in the world series.  That rubbed people the wrong way.  Then early this year he was asked by a reporter if he was going to have a drink in Canada since he was old enough.  He rudely replied, "That's a clown question, bro."  Later in this season he split his face open after breaking his bat because he recorded an out.  He was bleeding and had to be cleaned up.  He has a reputation for snapping his bat, as he has done this more than a couple times.  The last reason Harper made the news was just yesterday.  Him and always controversial coach Ozzie Guillen got into a little argument over how high his pine tar was on his bat.  The next time he was up he pointed the bat at Guillen as to say, "Is this alright with you?".  Guillen then blew a fuse after that cocky gesture.

Harper just doesn't rub me the right way, and it's tough comparing him to Trout because it seems impossible to not love the way Trout goes about his business.  At the end of the day however, both of these guys are great for baseball.  Long successful careers look to be in both of these kids futures.  But they might not be as similar as you think.

Something Needs to Change

Too many times recently sporting events have been decided by people other than the athletes participating.  I'm talking about the refs, officials, judges, and umpires that are in control of these games.  This has given me an idea that I believe every sport should look into.  Make post game press conferences mandatory for all refs, officials, judges, and umpires.  Every game that is played for a professional athlete whether they play great, or really poor they have to talk to the media and explain themselves.  Why don't theses guys have to do that? Why should they get a free pass?

Not too long ago there was one of the most controversial judging decisions in the sport of boxing.  Manny Pacquiao fought Timothy Bradley and everyone who knows anything about boxing had Pacquiao winning somewhere around 10 of the 12 rounds fought.  The decision came in at the end of the fight and two judges had Bradley winning the fight.  Pacquiao was robbed to put it simply.




Another case I have for my proposed idea happened in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  In a game where the Devils had all the momentum, and also needed a win the game was decided early in the first period by bad officiating.  In that period, the refs missed a boarding penalty that the NHL has been very strict about seen on the right. Gionta was without the puck which makes it an obvious penalty.  Instead the penalty was not called and literally 10 seconds later the Devils got called for a five minute major for boarding.  Both were penalties and only one was called.  On that five minute penalty the Kings scored three goals and the game was over thanks to the official that missed the call.

These poor decisions can't go without explanation.  I understand that these guys are humans and nobody is going to make the right call all the time, but there have been many times in sports where you need answers.  Something wasn't right in that Stanley Cup game, something wasn't right when Timothy Bradley was quoted before the decision saying, "I tried hard, but I couldn't beat the guy"; only to find out that the judges had him somehow winning the fight.  The suspicious calls especially when they are constantly against one team can't go without media getting to the bottom of things.  Sometimes it will be as easy as someone saying I made an honest mistake, and other times there might be a little bit more to the story.

I think that this will fix a lot of complaints that people have about officials in sports.  And the complaints are growing.  If an official knows in the back of his mind, man I gotta do my best or I have to explain to everyone on national T.V why I made this decision.  There will be much less suspicion about games being fixed and I don't think that these guys will have the guts to be ruining games, seasons, and championships.  Let's make it happen.